Romney had high hopes to win Ohio. A win in Ohio would have proven Romney’s decision to run on a message of repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), correct. Nonetheless, he lost the state to President Obama by a razor-thin margin. The loss is still a surprise to many Republican operatives; including Karl Rove. Their polling showed a nearly impossible for Obama to win the state. But the question remains, how did two campaigns come up with two very different predictions?
Here’s how:
Ohio demographics in 2011 included 10 million people
- 84% white/ 12% black / 3% Latino
Ohio voter demographics on Election Day included 5 million voters
- 79% white / 15% black / 3% latino
Ohio
- 79% of voters were white but they represent 84% of the state (-5% decrease)
- 15% of voters were black but they only represent 12% of the state (+3 increase)
- 3% of the voters were latino and they make up 3% of the state. (0% change remaining flat)
5 million Ohioans voted.
- If 84% of the voters were White and matched the Ohio demographics – Romney based on exit polling would have had +500,000 more people and would have won the state.
But only 79% were White= 4M people
- 41% of Whites voted for Obama = 1.6M
- 57% of Whites voted for Romney = 2.3M
15% were Black = 750,000 people
- 96% of Blacks voted for Obama = 720,000
- 4% of Blacks voted for Romney = 30,000
3% were Latino = 150,000 people
- 54% of Latinos voted for Obama = 81,000
- 42% of Latinos voted for Romney = 63,000
Voting Totals in the end (approximates)
Obama = 2,401,000 votes
Romney = 2,393,000 votes
1 Man 1 Mind